Opta's projection, which takes into account advanced statistics from the 36 teams participating in the league phase, simulates different scenarios to calculate the probability of each club lifting the trophy. Arsenal appears as the clear favourite, with 20.9% chances, followed closely by Bayern Munich, with 19.4%. Manchester City is in third place, with 12.3% chances.
The Real Madrid's poor showing is particularly striking, as the club is closer to Manchester United and Inter Milan, with 3.8% and 3.6% chances respectively, than to their more formidable opponents such as Barcelona, Bayern, and Arsenal. The current Champions League holders, PSG, also appear below expectations, with only 7.1% chances of retaining their title.
Arsenal and Bayern Munich concentrate almost 40% of the title probabilities, with approximately one in five simulations ending with each of the two clubs as champions. The Arsenal, under the management of Mikel Arteta, is attempting to turn their mathematical advantage into an unprecedented title. Bayern Munich, on the other hand, was also eliminated by PSG in the previous season.
Real Madrid, under Mourinho's leadership, will face Inter Milan in their first Champions League match this Tuesday, a team that also appears among the top ten candidates in Opta's projections.