The Tigre defeated Goiás 1-0 at the Heriberto Hülse, opening a six-point gap to the third-placed team in Série B. According to Globo Esporte Futebol, the league leader Criciúma has regained top spot in Série B and now has a 74.39% chance of direct promotion to Primeira Divisão.
The Tigre's victory over Goiás was their second win in a row, while Criciúma's success has boosted their chances of promotion. The Vila Nova took third place, while Sport defeated Londrina 2-1 and increased their chances of qualifying for the playoffs from 29.08% to 41.09%.
Meanwhile, Operário-PR, who could have taken third place, lost 2-1 to Avaí at home, who are in the relegation zone. Avaí was the only team among the bottom five to win, while Cuiabá achieved a good result in their fight for survival in Série B. Away from home, Cuiabá defeated Ceará, their direct rival in the relegation battle, 3-1. The risk of Cuiabá's relegation decreased from 19.06% to 7.33%.
Avaí was the only team among the bottom five to win, while Leão secured a 2-1 comeback victory over Operário-PR away from home and moved up from 18th to 17th place, still in the Z-4 zone. Leão's risk of relegation decreased from 59.65% to 52.12%, and the distance to Ceará, the first team outside the relegation zone, decreased from five to two points.
Globo Esporte Futebol calculates the chances of each team winning their remaining games, running 10,000 simulations for each match. The projections of chances of title and relegation will change as they are recalculated after each round, based on the latest results and the updated performances of each team.