Chelsea's Premier League record in 2025-26 is almost identical to when they finished mid-table under interim manager Guus Hiddink a decade ago, with just one more goal scored and one more conceded, BBC Football reports. This similarity in performance has led to speculation that the Blues could repeat the feat of winning the title after a lowly finish. Chelsea's players were the ones lifting the Premier League trophy the following season after finishing 31 points behind champions Leicester and below the likes of Southampton, West Ham and Stoke in 2015-16.
The key to Chelsea's potential title success lies in their ability to improve their finishing, as they scored eight fewer goals than they should have last season, given the number and quality of shots they took, BBC Football notes. This under-performance in front of goal came in just five games in March and April under Liam Rosenior, who was eventually ousted as head coach. Chelsea scored 58 goals from an expected goal value of 66.3, with only Crystal Palace and Wolves worse finishers than them last season.
Xabi Alonso's arrival as manager has brought a new tactical approach to the club, with the possibility of switching to a back three system, similar to the one used by Conte in the past. This system was instrumental in Chelsea's title-winning campaign in 2016, and could potentially be used again to great effect. Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen side won the Bundesliga unbeaten in 2023-24 playing three at the back.
While the task of improving by 43 points to win the title is a daunting one, Chelsea's underlying expected goal numbers suggest that they were the fourth-most dominant team in the Premier League last season. This, combined with the benefits of no European football and a new manager, makes a title challenge a realistic possibility. Chelsea will not be playing in any European competition this season, which could have a positive impact on their Premier League campaign.